January 22nd, 2004

Aristide, the Opposition Must Call for a Truce

Published in The Miami Herald
January 22, 2004

Haiti is at the heart of the Americas. In 1789 in St. Domingue, 500,000 slaves produced vast wealth in sugar, coffee and indigo, making French Hispaniola the world’s premier colony. Europe, Africa and the New World were joined there as nowhere else, and only there did slaves gain freedom by their own hands. On Jan. 1, 1804, Haiti became the second American republic. This past New Year’s Day, Haitians marked the bicentennial with little to celebrate except the steadfast valor of their
founders.

Since 2000, President Jean-Bertrand Aristide and the opposition have been locked in combat over that year’s parliamentary elections. Fanmi Lavalas, the ruling party, manipulated the results that already favored its candidates to gain an even stronger majority. The opposition seeks nothing less than Aristide’s resignation, and Aristide is standing fast to serve out his term, which ends in 2006. Violence has recently claimed two dozen lives.

The economy is in direr straits than ever. Except for emergency humanitarian relief, all
international aid has stopped; 80 percent of the population lives amid worsening poverty, nearly half eats less than the daily minimum, most do not have access to clean water; and the diaspora’s $800 million in yearly remittances and the lucrative transport of 15 percent of the cocaine entering the United States are the only assured sources of foreign exchange.

Hailed as a Haitian Nelson Mandela, Aristide drew overwhelming support among the poor when first elected in 1990. Rays of hope emanated from the then-priest turned politician who promised his compatriots that Haiti finally would become the “empire of liberty” sought by their ancestors.While still retaining favor among the poor, Aristide no longer commands the same allegiance. Opposition now flows from all quarters, albeit still more strongly from the middle class.

Though both sides are to blame for the dangerous impasse, Aristide bears the greater share. It was he, after all, who inspired trust among impoverished Haitians, and it is he who has failed to bolster the fledgling institutions of Haitian democracy. He has shown greater zeal for grabbing power than for alleviating the abject living conditions of his fellow citizens. How else to explain the crass manipulation of the already favorable election results in 2000 that he knew would endanger the international aid that Haiti needs?

The opposition’s demands are reasonable: Disband the armed gangs that do the government’s rough bidding, reform the police, end impunity and hold internationally supervised elections. What is unreasonable is the intransigent demand for Aristide’s immediate resignation. Why not call his bluff – if that’s what it is – on the recent offer to hold new elections within six months? Though stronger and more broadly based, the opposition doesn’t seem poised to displace Aristide via mass demonstrations any time soon.

The situation requires urgent action by all concerned. Mediation has been offered by the
Organization of American States, the Caribbean Community, the Haitian Catholic Bishops’ Conference and possibly Mexico. France has created a commission to improve relations with Haiti, which should include an offer to deal with the $21.7 billion in today’s money that France exacted as reparations after independence. Washington is engaged elsewhere but needs to focus a bit on Haiti.

Without a brake, the crisis will spin further out of control. A new wave of refugees and even greater passage of drugs to the U.S. mainland are certain to follow. Famine would not be far behind. Escalating factional violence would likely prompt a peacekeeping intervention. Haitian and international actors should feel compelled to embrace nation-building in earnest before it is irretrievably late.

The first step away from the abyss is for Aristide and the opposition to call a truce so that
international mediation can come into play. If Aristide and his opponents do not muster the requisite political will, then he will have become a Caribbean Robert Mugabe and Haiti, Zimbabwe. Then all without exception would be the losers.