Marifeli Perez-Stable

Published in The Miami Herald
January 7, 2004

Vicente Fox slipped. A few days before Christmas, he and his wife hosted a party for several dozen orphans at Los Pinos, Mexico’s presidential residence. Falling as he thrashed a piñata, the president was run over by kids eager to pick up candies and trinkets.

On Dec. 1, Fox marked his third year in power, rightfully proud of the two signal achievements of his tenure at half-time: macroeconomic stability and a freer, more democratic Mexico. Governing, however, has been an uphill climb. In mid-December, Fox, his National Action Party (PAN) and reformers of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) suffered an ignominious defeat when the Chamber of Deputies turned down a package of modest fiscal reforms. Last July’s midterm election cost the PAN 54 deputies and broadened the PRI’s plurality. With the support of the left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and other smaller parties, PRI dinosaurs prevailed.

Long gone are the great expectations of 2000 when PAN’s historic victory turned the tables on the PRI. Having embraced change, Fox has instead presided over a nearly paralyzed political system. Ordinary Mexicans have experienced democracy as higher unemployment, greater inequalities and declining real wages. Comprehensive economic reforms – especially tax, labor, social security and energy – are past due but nowhere in sight.

To be fair, Fox has faced tough circumstances. Having lost the presidency, the PRI has remained Mexico’s premier political party, resilient and far hardier in the opposition than most anticipated. Reforming Mexican political and economic institutions is a gargantuan task. With the U.S. recession, the Mexican economy ground to a halt. After 9-11, the prospects of an immigration agreement with the United States all but vanished.

Yet, Fox also faced an extraordinary opportunity. Charismatic and energizing, candidate Fox stirred millions of his fellow citizens into believing that a new Mexico was, at last, possible. At the inauguration, President Fox promised momentous changes in the first 100 days. Almost immediately though, he was transformed: The political will and finesse he mustered on the road to Los Pinos went into remission.

Assuming the office that had been the pivot of Mexican politics for seven decades must have been daunting. By winning, Fox banished even the diminished imperial presidency that Ernesto Zedillo had exercised, which perforce required a new style of governance. Perhaps only from the inside did Fox fully grasp the tenacity of the PRI-created state, and he gasped at the instability that a full-frontal tackle might bring.
Whatever the reasons, Fox did not hit the ground running. He failed to forge a new governing coalition out of the motley groups that elected him. He gave his team neither clear policy directions nor focused goals. Decision-making proved to be tortuous and slow. More than 100 days were wasted, and politics is ruthlessly unforgiving of time lost.

Fox’s disarray was just what the PRI needed to regroup, and it did so around an obstructionist agenda. The PRI in opposition dashed the commitment to reform that had become its standard while in Los Pinos. A larger plurality in the legislature reinforced this stance, though at the price of a potentially grievous divide. For the first time, PRI deputies did not vote as a monolith: The defeated fiscal reform put the party’s Jekylls and Hydes indelibly on the record.

During the 1990s, the reigning PRI begrudgingly agreed to electoral reforms that ultimately made Fox’s victory possible. Today, Mexico confronts a similar, albeit far more difficult, challenge: to establish new rules of engagement under a divided government and a multiparty system. Even if the PRI reclaims the presidency in 2006, there is no turning back the clock.

Consensus-building is the only alternative if Mexico is to improve living standards and take its due place in a globalized world. The three major parties – PRI, PAN and PRD – need to realize that it is in their best interests to make politics more about finding common ground to govern than about power struggles and posturing.

Though thankfully not what it once was, the presidency is still the focal point. By summoning a new political will and finesse, Fox can still serve Mexico well in his remaining 1,000 days. If so, he will have set a worthy presidential measure on the road to consolidating Mexican democracy. Stumbling under a piñata at a Christmas party in 2003 would then be remembered as a light-hearted mishap.