Marifeli Perez-Stable

Published in The Miami Herald
September 13, 2007

What a difference a year makes. Last September, Felipe Calderón’s razor-thin presidential win still stung Mexico. Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, proclaimed himself ”legitimate president” and Calderón, a ”usurper.” The Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) kept Vicente Fox from delivering the presidential annual address in the Chamber of Deputies. AMLO displaced Fox from Mexico City’s main plaza for the traditional commemoration of Sept. 15, Independence Day. Most Mexicans believed that fraud invalidated the July 2 election or had doubts about the process.

Inaugurated on Dec. 1, Calderón enjoys an approval rating of 65 percent and would gain 45 percent of the votes were the election held today. In contrast, Mexicans disapprove of AMLO’s self-proclamation as their president by a three-to-one margin, while no more than 30 percent would now cast their votes in his favor. Some polls even show him slightly behind Roberto Madrazo, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate, who finished a distant third.

Calderón deserves high praise for his part in bringing Mexico back from last year’s political brink. As president elect, he set the tone that continues to mark his administration: collaboration, dialogue and negotiation. Once in office, he deployed the military against organized crime. Even if controversial and with uncertain results, the decision earned him the majority’s respect. He also worked with Congress to pass the 2007 budget and a reform of the federal pension system. Mexicans once again have a resolute president.

Blessing in disguise

Credit is also due elsewhere. The PRI — old fox that it is — rose from the ashes of the drubbing in last year’s presidential race. The PRI elected as its president Beatriz Paredes, a savvy and honest politician who has a good working relationship with Calderón. Under her leadership, the PRI has had an exceptional electoral trek.

In Yucatán, the party won a hard-fought race for governor, no doubt aided by divisions within the ruling National Action Party (PAN). The PRI emerged the winner in seven out of eight state legislative elections. Even its loss in Baja California’s gubernatorial campaign is a blessing in disguise: the PRI candidate was a dinosaur of the worst kind.

The PAN and the PRI are, thus, working within the institutional bounds of politics. Except for Mexico City’s mayor, so are the PRD governors. Unfortunately, the PRD itself is on a self-destructive binge. Gone is the triumphant aura after July 2006. Yes, that’s right: AMLO barely lost but the PRD won big, becoming the largest opposition party in the Chamber of Deputies. In 2007, the party’s losses at the polls have been devastating, which might yet be catastrophic if Michoacán’s governorship is lost in November.

In mid-August, the PRD held its national congress. While the anti-AMLO faction controlled 63 percent of the delegates, AMLO and his group scrapped a document detailing the PRD’s and the candidate’s mistakes made before and after the presidential election. Instead, the congress reaffirmed AMLO as the winner who was kept from the prize through fraud. As a result, the congress stuck by the futile act of not recognizing Calderón as Mexico’s president.

How long will the PRD go on paying obeisance to AMLO? Politics is the name of the game, and the defeated candidate is driving the party down the road to perdition. The PRD governors — perhaps, privately, even Mexico City’s mayor — well understand political reality. So do a majority of militants who voted for anti-AMLO delegates to their congress. The Left made untold contributions to Mexico’s political opening. Democratic consolidation needs a modern, social-democratic PRD, which AMLO is bent on blocking. If he succeeds, watch for the PRI to fill the vacuum.

Economic clouds

Still, not all goes well in Mexico. For the second time in two months, the Popular Revolutionary Army attacked state-owned oil and gas installations. Thankfully no one was hurt, but the economic losses are steep. Calderón must act to protect Mexico’s vital interests lest the guerrilla group resurface yet again. Due to the U.S. economy’s uncertainty, economic clouds are also gathering. Progress in reducing poverty and expanding the middle class may be imperiled. Governing Mexico is never easy, but Calderón’s prudent leadership may be just what’s needed to weather the bumpy ride.