October 24th, 2008
Cubans anxious about change
Published in The Miami Herald
October 24, 2008
Last month, Freedom House issued Change in Cuba: How Citizens View Their Country’s Future, based on 180 in-depth interviews in Havana, Villa Clara, Holguín, Camagüey and Santiago de Cuba. In April 2008, five field researchers traveled to Cuba to conduct face-to-face interviews using a 35-question template on three overarching themes:
• What is driving or could drive change?
• Are recent reforms consequential for the lives of ordinary Cubans?
• How might citizens respond if their expectations aren’t met?
The emerging profile is bleak. Though unlikely soon, the prospect of political change generates more anxiety than hope. Fears that it would bring levels of crime and insecurity unknown in Cuba are widespread. Skepticism abounds regarding the reforms as does helplessness in the face of oppression. Almost all are uninformed or misinformed about the island’s democracy movement. Most see change coming eventually from within the Communist Party. About half view their leaders as more interested in preserving power than in the welfare of ordinary Cubans.
Still, these Cubans often signaled a wish for greater freedoms of movement and expression as well as an end to the dual currency. Freedom to travel — within Cuba and abroad — is highly prized, though most do not want to leave permanently. Given the pervasiveness of informants, freedom of expression is likely understood in terms of their daily lives.
Nothing irritates Cubans more than the worthlessness of their pesos when so many essential items are priced in convertible pesos. A single currency, however, cannot be decreed by fiat. Without a strong, productive economy, unifying the peso is a midsummer night’s dream. Unless the scope and pace of reforms pick up, Cubans will have to do with their worthless pesos.
Havana’s preeminence is evident throughout the report. Habaneros are better informed than citizens elsewhere. All knew about Raúl Castro’s call to debate national problems; some participated in the discussions but said questions had to be submitted in advance. Spontaneity is anathema to official Cuba.
In contrast, non-Havana Cubans expressed little awareness of the national debate. Those who took part in the assemblies didn’t think the authorities would respond to their concerns. Many didn’t know much about the reforms, not even those in agriculture, arguably the one area where changes may yet prove significant.
No reason to work
Though Camagüey’s economy relies heavily on agriculture, respondents there knew little about a much-touted measure that deregulated the sale of farm tools. Rural Camagüeyanos hadn’t come across the special stores carrying these tools nor did they expect these would be opened soon.
Unsurprisingly, young Cubans are the most disaffected. Concerns over the economy and the lack of opportunities run highest. Many see no reason to work in the formal economy or study beyond high school. Their parents, after all, reaped precious little from their hard work and university degrees. Almost all are politically indifferent. Mental health problems are commonplace among Cuba’s youth.
”There is nothing you can do,” a woman answered when asked what she would do if she were the victim of an acto de repudio, an eviction or other official abuse. State-sponsored repudiation is usually reserved for active opponents. Evictions, however, affect many more citizens.
With the decline of agriculture, Cuban society has seen a steep rise in undocumented rural migrants, that is, citizens who don’t have the requisite permits to live in urban areas. A few years ago, Holguín’s government bulldozed without warning a shanty town on the city’s perimeter that left 500 families homeless. Apparently, the victims did not protest their fate.
Going through the motions
Ordinary Cubans complain and conform. Political humor provides an outlet. Many engage in black-market activities while others risk their lives on rafts. Over decades, Cubans have resorted to these and other private acts of rebellion. What’s new is how extensive these behaviors are today. To be sure, some Cubans still support the government. Most, however, only go through the motions.
Cuba’s is a potentially combustible society. Last July, Castro indicated reforms would proceed slowly. A timid pace gives top leaders a false sense of security; a faster pace risks empowering ordinary Cubans and a partial loss of control.
Damned if they do; damned if they don’t.