Marifeli Perez-Stable

Published in The Miami Herald
December 17, 2009

Nicaragua is nearing the brink. In 2006 Daniel Ortega campaigned in sheep’s clothing but freed his inner wolf once inaugurated. He joined ALBA, Venezuela’s alliance of autocrats, traveled to Iran, Cuba, Libya and Algeria and used then-U.S. Ambassador Paul Trivelli as a punching bag. The Sandinista machinery of clientelism, corruption and strong-arm tactics is back in full force.

True, Nicaragua remains in CAFTA-DR, the free-trade agreement with the United States, and signed onto the Merida Initiative, a joint U.S., Mexico and Central American effort against organized crime. The Nicaraguan National Police and the Drug Enforcement Administration have a history of reliable cooperation that has increased under the Sandinistas.

All the same, a political crisis is in the offing. Notwithstanding the Constitution’s ban on consecutive terms, Ortega is set on remaining in power beyond 2011. In October, the Constitutional Court green-lighted Ortega’s reelection, which sounds legitimate but isn’t. Only the National Assembly — where the Sandinistas don’t have the votes — can rule on the matter. Thanks to el pacto, Ortega has the luxury of cafeteria politics, picking and choosing institutions to get his way.

In 2000, Ortega and Liberal caudillo Arnoldo Alemán forged a pact to divvy up control of national institutions that included establishing a lower threshold for a first-round win. The Sandinistas certainly did not rise from the ashes of an imploded political system. Ortega won with a smaller vote percentage than he had garnered in losing the previous three elections.

Nicaraguan democracy has been slowly dying by a thousand cuts. Civil liberties — respected under Violeta Chamorro, Enrique Bolaños and even Alemán — are no longer a matter of law but of political expediency. Suspect accusations have been brought against journalist Carlos Fernando Chamorro and dissident Liberal Eduardo Montealegre.

The Supreme Electoral Council banned the Reformist Sandinista Movement and the Conservative Party from partaking in the 2008 municipal elections. The government — which had brazenly barred international and even domestic observers — perpetrated widespread fraud. Losing millions in international aid from the United States and the European Union was a small price to pay for guaranteeing victory at the polls.

The Sandinista motto might as well be, “The Nicaraguan people be damned!” After a decade of growth, the economy is likely to shrink 2 percent this year. The international crisis is partly to blame for rising unemployment and declining remittances. But so are the Sandinistas for their electoral fraud, which cost the economy dearly. In any case, Venezuela and Russia — neither known for transparency or democracy — are better partners to further Ortega’s ends.

Maximum power drives the Sandinistas. If they cared for the lot of ordinary Nicaraguans, the Ortega government would be promoting democracy and creating jobs. Instead, it has cast a wide net of corruption and sinecures to benefit loyalists at the top and at the base. Why bother with being the president of all Nicaraguans when control and wealth can be had with 38 percent? Only now 80 percent oppose Ortega’s reelection and 60 percent disapprove of him. The Sandinistas arrogantly squandered the good will of the 67 percent who, in December 2006, thought their return to power would bring prosperity and reconciliation.

In November, Managua witnessed two demonstrations: Some 40,000 marched in the opposition’s, 100,000 in the government’s. Size matters but not in the obvious sense. Politically 40,000 opponents are more significant than 100,000 Orteguistas. Sandinistas have well-oiled machinery to mobilize their base; the opposition doesn’t. Sandinistas are full of rhetoric devoid of idealism; the opposition is looking beyond el pacto toward democracy.

Dissident Liberals, reformist Sandinistas and independents are unlikely to derail the Sandinista power grab. More likely but still uncertain is a Liberal reunion that presents a unity candidate in 2011. If Alemán is the candidate, the abstention rate will be high and only Ortega will benefit. If another Liberal is the candidate, then there’s a chance.

Whatever the scenario, the Sandinistas will do whatever it takes to retain power. Just as the Honduran crisis is winding down, a new one is brewing in Nicaragua. Only there it won’t be a coup but democracy’s final death blow while the world sails on.