Marifeli Perez-Stable

Published in The Miami Herald
June 7, 2007

The arrogance of power: that’s how William Fulbright depicted Lyndon Johnson’s conduct of the Vietnam War in the 1960s. Two decades later, Mikhail Gorbachev attributed the same to the Soviet Union’s Communist Party. Today, a similar malady afflicts Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez.

While winning handily at the polls, Chávez behaves as if Venezuela were amid a revolution. The nonrenewal of RCTV’s license is a case in point. Of course the official action is an affront to freedom of speech. Like RCTV, Venevisión favorably reported the attempted coup in 2002, except that its license was just renewed. After the opposition lost the 2004 recall referendum, the channel’s owners — unlike RCTV’s — read the tea leaves and changed their tune.

Thousands of university students have taken to the streets demanding RCTV’s reopening. Theirs is a rightful protest in defense of free speech, not a movement to dislodge Chávez from power. Most Venezuelans, including 53 percent of Chavistas, reject the government’s move. Even Chávez’s supporters enjoyed RCTV’s popular programming. I doubt that the new official station, TEVES, will enrapture audiences with politically correct soap operas.

For the first time, Chávez is on the wrong side of public opinion. Power begets arrogance, thus democracy’s genius of institutional checks and balances. In the face of sustained demonstrations, would Chávez relent or call out the troops? If the opposition peters out, would he rev up his Bolivarian 21st century socialism? Should repression reign, would Latin America act on behalf of freedom?

Still, not all is bleak in the region. Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico are headed in the right direction, albeit with ups and downs.

• Brazil: Does anyone now remember the fears raised by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s election in 2002? Lula’s moderation and an export boom have kept the economy on track. His success within the political system provides the best antidote against bombastic leadership. Yet, his Workers’ Party shamefully extended the clientelism and corruption that have long plagued Brazilian politics. Brazil, nonetheless, is reaping the benefits of continuity, that is, reasonably good governance since 1995 when Fernando Henrique Cardoso assumed the presidency.

• Chile: The country amply demonstrates what sound political leadership can accomplish. At the same time, the ruling coalition, in power since 1990, is facing new challenges. President Michelle Bachelet has had an erratic 15 months in office. Par for the course, perhaps, given her commitment to open wide the doors of Chile’s aristocratic, male-led democracy. Still, time may be running out for Bachelet to get it right and maybe even for the Concertación. Coalition fissures and a corruption scandal are in evidence. Might the next election bring in the democratic right?

• Colombia: President Alvaro Uribe needs to move beyond the security agenda. Social needs, poverty reduction in particular, and economic reforms to secure fiscal stability and sustained growth top the to-do list of his second term. Yet, security matters keep intruding. Murders, kidnappings and terror attacks are dramatically down, but bringing peace to Colombia is not in sight. Recently exposed ties between paramilitary forces and some Uribe administration officials are a running problem. Fortunately, Colombia’s strong legal system can handle it with fairness and credibility.

• Mexico: Six months ago few would have augured an auspicious start for President Felipe Calderón. Happily, that’s what happened. After last year’s bitterly contested election, Calderón hit the ground running. Congress passed his first budget in record time. In January, he unleashed the military to combat narcotraffickers, which has earned him high approval ratings amid uncertain success. Unlike his predecessor, Calderón is finding common ground with the opposition. All must work together to spur the economy and reduce poverty.

In closing, I return to the arrogance of power. On Tuesday, Cuban television broadcast a taped 50-minute segment with Fidel Castro. After meeting the Vietnamese leader, Castro sung Vietnam’s praises. Unlike his health, his stubbornness hasn’t suffered a bit; the economic reforms that have so improved Vietnamese lives went unmentioned. Castro cares only about history and disdains the mundaneness of ordinary Cubans. Wouldn’t justice be served if history didn’t absolve him for failing to lead Cuba in the direction of Vietnam? Poetic, indeed.