Marifeli Perez-Stable

Published in The Miami Herald
May 10, 2007

After last year’s marathon, Latin America’s electoral calendar in 2007 is a breeze. Only Argentina and Guatemala are holding presidential elections, though both could hold surprises.

In Argentina, the Justicialista (Peronist) Party may well settle on Sen. Cristina Fernández — also first lady — despite her husband’s higher odds of winning on the first round. A recent (if modest) decline in the polls notwithstanding, President Néstor Kirchner’s Peronists are counting on a hapless opposition that will not offer much of a match. If so, the nation may see a smooth marital succession.

In Guatemala, Nobel-laureate Rigoberta Menchú is the first indigenous presidential candidate. Though now slim, Menchú’s chances have nowhere to go but up if she delivers on the promise of a campaign that embraces all Guatemalans. Still, she must mobilize indigenous peoples (a majority by most counts), which may not be so easy. Indigenous communities — wary of political activism, after suffering horrific violence during the 30-year civil war — might not rush to the polls in her favor. Abstention rates in Guatemalan elections have been 55-60 percent.

Let’s not take the light schedule at face value, however. Democracy — or politics, for that matter — isn’t just about presidential elections. Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela are on the brink of constitutional referendums that could further undercut democracy. Still, we shouldn’t forget the origins of Evo Morales, Rafael Correa and Hugo Chávez: dysfunctional political systems that served the few and disgusted citizens.

Bolivia’s constitutional assembly is supposed to deliver a draft document by August. Until late February, official and opposition delegates sparred over the government’s attempt to gain approval for its amendments by simple majority. Morales compromised by agreeing to submit to referendum all amendments approved without a two-thirds majority. Even so, the August deadline may be pushed back. Regional autonomy, opposed by the government but backed by five of the nine departments, may be a steeper hurdle to overcome.

In April, Correa won a thumping Yes in the plebiscite to hold a constituent assembly. After elections set for September 30, the assembly delegates have until March 2008 to conclude their deliberations. Only no one expects the time line to flow so smoothly. For one, the opposition could still muster enough delegates either to control the assembly or enough to make government designs more difficult. That’s why Correa is on a permanent campaign, traveling the country and listening to ordinary Ecuadoreans.

Chávez, in turn, is calling a referendum on additional constitutional reforms, which include his indefinite reelection and other changes for Venezuela to move more quickly toward the so-called 21st century socialism. He also continues to grab international headlines whether by pulling out of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, threatening to leave the Organization of American States or blasting the United States for refusing to extradite Luis Posada Carriles, a Cuban exile long suspected of terrorism.

Democracy — let’s forget the adjectives — must be accompanied by civil liberties, fairly contested elections and separation of powers. Democracies put their trust on institutions over individual leaders. Unchecked powers debase democracy.

True, citizens don’t always elect the best candidates, but there’s always the next election. The means are the end, i.e, how things are done is more important than pursuing a lofty goal no matter the cost. Were it not for how bad the alternatives are, democracies — messy, contradictory, uncertain — wouldn’t be the best kind of government.

Morales, Correa and Chávez don’t trust institutions outside their control, discredit leaders who disagree with them and see citizens as masses, not individuals. Indefinite reelection is already on Chávez’s agenda and might yet be on his neighbors’. How Chávez’s reign might end is anyone’s guess. Morales and Correa can still be challenged by opponents, if they learn from the Venezuelan opposition’s mistakes, and may never amass Chávez’s unchecked powers.

In 2007, Latin American politics has already been far from a breeze, and stronger winds will likely gather in the remaining 7 ½ months. At the same time, not all is bleak. Brazil, Colombia, Chile and Mexico are examples of relatively good governance, which I will review in my next column. Stay tuned