Marifeli Perez-Stable

By John Dorschner
Published in The Miami Herald
February 21, 2008

Raúl Castro may move slowly to make minor reforms, but even small changes in agriculture could have ”combustible . . . unintended consequences,” according to a veteran Cuba expert.

Marifeli Pérez Stable, a vice president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington and a professor at Florida International University, made the observation Wednesday night during a panel discussion that served as the opening for the seventh annual conference held by the Cuban Research Institute.

Pérez Stable was speaking of much-discussed agricultural reforms allowing smaller farmers incentives to boost Cuba’s dismal production rates. With Fidel Castro stepping down as president and many citizens complaining about living on 15 or 20 pesos a month, the demand for change is huge, she said.

Florida cattle rancher John Parke Wright, who travels to Cuba monthly, told The Miami Herald later that ”agriculture is priority No. 1” for the Cuban government and reform is already under way.

Wright said he spent last week with Ramon Castro, the older brother of Fidel and Raúl. It was the leadership’s idea to give small- and medium-size farmers incentives, but he disagreed with Pérez Stable’s ”combustible” possibility.

”Put it another way. The Cubans that are in the leadership are in the cocina [kitchen] and they know what they’re good at. They’re solid men and women. The one thing Cubans want is more pesos in their pockets and a better quality of life,” Wright said.

”Bueno trabajo, bueno dinero,” Wright said. “Good work, good money. That’s pretty straightforward stuff.”

Wright said the reform efforts were starting with farmers raising pigs and chickens, because these were the places to make the quickest changes.

Many efforts are already under way in which Texas and Florida ranchers are helping Cuba boost production. Wright said he has arranged for Texas ranchers to produce 2,000 ‘’straws” of Brahman bull semen to be shipped to Cuba. Some Florida ranchers have also been shipping prize bulls to Cuba.

During the panel discussion Wednesday, Damián Fernandez, director of FIU’s Cuban Research Institute, said Raúl must walk a fine line in making changes. Cuba has ”not fully entered into a post-Fidel period,” Fernandez said. He views Raúl as having “much more pragmatic, rational basis for his leadership.”

But ”he needs hard-liners to be rather happy,” while also looking to the general citizens’ complaints of shortage of goods, Fernandez said. “He needs to deliver. He needs to govern differently.”

Pérez Stable noted that after almost a half-century of rule, “how exhausted Cubans are and how spent the leadership is.

”Fidel has been sold on the issue of agricultural reforms. The government thinks it can control these reforms, but no matter what, they are going to be radical in their context,” because the country has gone so long without reforms.

“The consequences are going to be unexpected and unknowable. The government won’t be able to control them.”

Katrin Hansing, an anthropologist at the Cuban Research Institute, noted that even a Cuban neurosurgeon has become an illegal cab driver to make ends meet. ”Breaking the law has become the standard practice” as Cubans put on the “double-face.”