Marifeli Perez-Stable

Published in The Miami Herald

November 11, 2004

Time is not on Mexico’s side. Consolidated democracies such as the United States, Canada and Western Europe took decades to settle democratic institutions, forge open societies and empower their citizens. Mexico needs to meet these challenges at once.

In July 2006, the first presidential election since Vicente Fox wrested the presidency from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) will be held. To say that it will be pivotal fails to gauge the magnitude of what lies ahead. After successfully joining the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994, Mexico never fully took on the liberalization of its domestic economy. In 2000, the country managed a democratic transition exemplarily but has since fared less well at bracing democratic governance. Economic and political reforms: That’s the big, long-term picture.

The more-immediate picture is muddled, however. The presidential campaign was effectively joined after the midterm elections in 2003 when the PRI routed the ruling National Action Party (PAN). Since then, Fox has largely been a lame duck. Jockeying and posturing in the race for Los Pinos, the presidential compound, have overtaken the three major parties — the PAN, PRI and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).

The PAN was born, survived and eventually thrived in Mexico’s political wilderness. In the early 1980s, Panistas began to emerge from their ostracism as the PRI engaged them in its reluctant but unavoidable opening of Mexican politics. Two things happened to the PAN along the way. On the one hand, the party honed its skills as an increasingly efficacious opposition. On the other, what was once a chasm with the PRI on economic matters narrowed considerably as PRI technocrats prodded Mexico into NAFTA.

The PAN has suffered an arduous on-the-job training. Though macroeconomic stability and greater transparency are no small achievements, the Fox administration has mostly failed to undermine the structures, networks and culture that underpinned the PRI’s power for 72 years. After the 2003 midterm debacle, the PAN was consumed for months by the speculation of First Lady Marta Sahagún’s presidential ambitions, which half-hearted denials have not laid to rest.

Anti-market banners

In 2001, the PRI arose from the ashes in unexpectedly good shape. Party dinosaurs gained the upper hand as the much-vaunted technocrats bore the burden of losing Los Pinos. Regaining the presidency became the PRI’s driving force. Unfurling their old nationalist and anti-market banners, Priistas have reveled in obstructing the PAN.

Roberto Madrazo looks like the PRI’s candidate. But his support may be shallow as Priistas weigh his high negatives against the party’s favorable ratings in public-opinion surveys. Some PRI quarters are mulling over an alternate track: choosing a less-partisan candidate with a more-credible, wider-based appeal. Juan Ramón de la Fuente, president of the National Autonomous University, is often mentioned in this regard.

The PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador has placed reducing poverty center stage in his campaign and leads in voters’ preference. As the austere, able mayor of Mexico City, he is looked upon by millions of Mexicans as their candidate. Corruption scandals involving some of his closest associates have not dented his armor. Neither have the PRI-PAN efforts to knock him out of the race by lifting his immunity so he can be charged and tried for a relatively minor allegation.

A severe blow to democracy

These efforts, in fact, are a symptom of the old Mexico at work. The two major parties are grasping at technicalities to keep López Obrador from running in 2006. If successful, Mexican democracy would be dealt a severe blow as millions would rightfully feel disenfranchised. He should not be dispatched before he can prove his mettle at the polls. Nothing would fuel the flames of populism more than denying him this opportunity.

The next Mexican president will need to muster extraordinary political will and talent if the ghosts of Mexico’s past are to be put to rest and the country to look forward.