Marifeli Perez-Stable

Published in The Miami Herald
July 20, 2006

Was there fraud in Mexico’s presidential election on July 2? José Woldenberg, the widely respected former president of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) and a founder of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), recently wrote:

“Comparing 1988 and the present situation is delirious. Then, the political parties did not have the overwhelming majority of tally sheets in their possession; today, they do. Then, it was impossible to reconstruct — in a trustworthy manner — the election result; today we can, polling station by polling station.”

In 1988, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) used crass fraud to deny leftist Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas the presidency. Still, opposition and citizen outcry forced the PRI to enact critical reforms. In 1996, IFE was granted full autonomy. Free and fair national elections — based on a completely new electoral registry, a crucial step in gaining public confidence — have been the norm in Mexico ever since.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador — the PRD candidate known as AMLO, who trails Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party (PAN) by 243,934 votes — has claimed an ”electoral swindle.” Curiously, PRD representatives, who signed off on the tally sheets at most of the 130,488 polling stations, did not register complaints on Election Day. Close to two million citizens — local electoral councilors, party representatives and election observers — supervised the election.

Human error

Since July 2, IFE’s councilors have often proven themselves inept at handling a politically sensitive situation. Undoubtedly, there were irregularities, largely attributable to human error, that the outcome’s closeness magnify. Whether ineptness, irregularities or Vicente Fox’s entering the electoral fray on the PAN’s behalf — which Mexican law prohibits — tainted Calderón’s slim margin of victory is a matter for the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TRIFE) to decide. A recount of those ballot boxes where TRIFE upholds the PRD’s challenges could be authorized. A vote-by-vote recount — keep in mind a first count already happened on July 2, which was rechecked July 5-6 against the tally sheets in the 300 electoral districts — is unlikely. On both occasions, ordinary citizens and party representatives watched over the process.

On July 15, Reforma published the results of a poll on the post-electoral crisis. Sixty percent thought a recount unnecessary, while 37 percent deemed it necessary. Sixty-two percent gave IFE a favorable evaluation, and three-quarters trusted TRIFE’s impartiality. Were there to be a another election between Calderón and AMLO, whom would you choose? Forty-six percent said Calderón, 33 percent AMLO, 11 percent didn’t know and 10 percent neither. Clearly, Mexico needs a second round between the two top presidential candidates to prevent a repeat of 2006.

The election was AMLO’s to lose. While the PAN did engage in a negative campaign first, at about the same time — as Fox was making daily pronouncements implicitly favoring Calderón — AMLO shouted at his rallies: ¡Cállese, chachalaca! (Shut up, you chattering hen!), a crudeness that displeased many citizens. Confident of victory, he then refused to participate in the first debate.

Though AMLO’s message on behalf of the poor caught everyone’s attention, so did his insistence on a Mexico less involved in the international economy. If — according to Parametría, a Mexican polling firm — 600,000 PRD militants were unconvinced enough to vote for Calderón, is it any wonder that AMLO, if not by much, failed to sway a plurality of voters?

Legitimate election

The PRD is on a precarious path. Two peaceful, protest rallies in Mexico City have been impressive; a third is set for July 30. Yet, the Reforma poll shows AMLO losing voters from his election-day total. If TRIFE rules against him, will the PRD carry on with an everlasting resistance movement? Is the PRD willing to squander its rise to Mexico’s second political party on fraud charges that Mexican citizens and international observers consider spurious?

Most Mexicans already see the July 2 election as legitimate. If Calderón is ratified, even more will stand by TRIFE. AMLO has every right to challenge the election. What he doesn’t have is the right to imply that his acceptance of TRIFE’s ruling depends on the outcome.

No later than Sept. 6, Mexico will have a president-elect. For the sake of Mexican democracy, let us hope that cooler heads prevail.