Marifeli Perez-Stable

Published in The Miami Herald
December 7, 2006

Latin America just closed a busy electoral year. The citizens of Chile, Costa Rica, Haiti, Peru, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela elected or reelected their presidents. Even in the closest cases, the contests were largely free and fair.

Costa Rica spent weeks in a recount before certifying Oscar Arias’ victory. Lourdes Flores, the best candidate in Peru, lost by a whisker in the first round; Alan García went on to defeat Ollanta Humala in the second. In Mexico, half a percentage point separated Felipe Calderón — now president — and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) — now the self-proclaimed “legitimate president.”

The most recent elections — Nicaragua, Ecuador and Venezuela — yielded wins for the populist left. Yet, grains of salt are in order. Daniel Ortega won with a smaller share of the electorate than he garnered in losing the three previous contests. Like Peru’s García, Ortega has managed a rare second act in politics and, if only to improve his standing in history, he might govern within bounds.

Enthroned for life

In Ecuador, Rafael Correa is more worrisome. He has a messianic streak, institutions are dysfunctional and presidents there don’t normally finish their terms. Correa may fall into the temptation of refashioning the political system in his own image.

Since his decisive win on Dec. 3, Hugo Chávez has been trumping the radicalization of his Bolivarian revolution that may be more than many of his supporters bargained for, not to mention the 38 percent who opposed him. Changing the constitution to enthrone himself for life may not sit well with an electorate that continues to value democratic freedoms.

Some rays of light are, moreover, shining on the opposition. Manuel Rosales conducted a good campaign that — even in defeat — should forever banish the radicalism of electoral abstention. Politics and more politics should be the only sights on the horizon.

In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s reelection is good news. His leadership has been the best antidote to would-be demagogues exploiting the poor’s rightful anger. Lula values institutions, negotiation and compromise. That’s why his economic policies are reasonable, and poverty rates — though still high — are declining. After weathering the difficult post-electoral period rather well, Calderón hit the presidential ground running: cutting executive-branch salaries — his own and other top officials’ — by 10 percent, making social spending a top priority and announcing policies to improve Mexican competitiveness.

Leftist Lula and conservative Calderón are not so far apart. Each must tread his political turf carefully. The corruption scandals in Lula’s first term — confined to the Workers’ Party — may come back to sting him directly in the second. Calderón needs to bridge the political deficit of his bare-minimum win and stay above the fray of AMLO’s intemperate resistance. Both face tough socioeconomic challenges: achieving higher rates of economic growth and providing physical security for their beleaguered citizens. Success in Brazil and Mexico would resound beyond their borders.

For the most part, elections are no longer a problem in Latin America. Institutions and a frayed social fabric are another matter. Democracy cannot consolidate when most citizens lack confidence in the political system, when the law is not applied equally or when the police are themselves engaged in crime. Nor have the region’s economies delivered. Latin Americans are, of course, concerned about jobs, poverty and low wages. About 60 percent have had an unemployed adult living in their household in the recent past. Macroeconomic stability — no small achievement — is a means, not an end.

The lessons of Chile

Still, the majority believes democracy and the market provide the best avenues to make progress. Populism, which disdains the separation of powers and exalts the state as an economic actor, seems far removed from the good sense of most Latin Americans. Yet, as Chávez, Ortega and Correa just showed, it can capture people’s imagination. Citizen discontent must be redressed within democratic institutions and market economics.

The lessons of Chile — Latin America’s success story — are obvious: democratic consolidation and economic progress require sound political leadership, market economics and a responsible state. Latin American elites — in particular, Brazil’s and Mexico’s — must step up to the plate and swing for the fence. We’ve had too many strikeouts and lost too many games.