June 5th, 2009

Raúl won’t face OAS challenge

Published in The Miami Herald
June 5, 2009

Cuba isn’t back. On Wednesday, the OAS General Assembly repealed the 1962 resolution that had excluded the Cuban government from its ranks. It also established a path for reintegration: Havana needs to take the initiative and open a dialogue that would be conducted according to OAS “practices, purposes and principles.”

Almost 35 years ago, another General Assembly resolved to end collective sanctions against Cuba and set member states free to restore relations with Havana. In 1975, the Ford administration, which had opened a discreet dialogue with Havana, green-lighted the OAS move. Still, the vote then passed only with the requisite two-thirds majority. Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay, then military dictatorships, voted No; military-led Brazil and Somoza’s Nicaragua abstained.

Except for the United States, all countries in the region have normal relations with Cuba. This year, 10 Latin American presidents have met with Raúl Castro on official visits. Without Barack Obama’s proclamation of ”a new beginning,” however, rescinding Cuba’s OAS exclusion would have been unthinkable. Unlike 1975’s, the new resolution was reached by consensus.

”An historic error,” the more militant member states called the 1962 resolution. But was it? Hindsight is 20-20, but it can also be forgetful. The missile crisis was yet to come. Cuba was arming guerrillas in Latin America, a move that, in part, constituted Havana’s response to Washington’s activities to undo the revolution. In short, it was the height of the Cold War. So, yes, let’s bid a cheerful adieu to the anachronistic resolution but without forgetting its history.

Cuba is a potent symbol in Latin America and the Caribbean. Some countries — Brazil, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic and Mexico, among them — take a realistic approach based on diplomacy and trade. In contrast, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Ecuador and Honduras wave the flags of solidarity and anti-imperialism. Caracas and Managua, in particular, threatened to leave the OAS and are still pining for an alternate organization without the United States.

Having Obama in the White House is challenging for militant populism. At the Summit of the Americas in April, for example, Obama established a strong connection with his counterparts in the English-speaking Caribbean. In Honduras, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continued the rapport at a special breakfast meeting with the region’s foreign ministers. Caribbean governments have been unrelenting critics of the U.S. embargo but are willing to cut Obama some slack. Most in Latin America are as well.

At one level, this week’s OAS discussion was about revoking Cuba’s suspension. Some hailed the resolution for not imposing conditions on Cuba, technically true except that the onus is now on Havana. In the unlikely event that it takes the initiative, Cuba’s leadership knows that the resolution calls for a dialogue ”in accordance” with OAS principles. At another, the more complicated issue lies with the Inter-American Democratic Charter (2001).

After the resolution passed, Manuel Zelaya, Honduras’ president, hailed: ”We begin a new era of fraternity and tolerance.” The Democratic Charter, however, doesn’t brook tolerance of repression. If Cuba knocks, the OAS would surely be in a bind that might well bury it. In the meantime, the Democratic Charter is not forceful enough to prevent militant populism from subverting democratic rights and institutions. Democracy, after all, is more than elections.

In the past two months, Havana has thrown one epithet after another at the OAS. I don’t think Raúl Castro will take up the challenge contained in the new resolution. If he did, it’d be a sign of troubles all around regarding the OAS, U.S.-Latin American relations and, especially, the incipient Washington-Havana dialogue. Cuba, in fact, may be a moderating influence on militant populism.

Now that Cuba’s OAS suspension is history, Latin America and the Caribbean should take a deep breath. Neither Cuba nor the United States wants to mend their estrangement quickly. Cuba is facing daunting domestic challenges. So is the Obama administration, if of a different order altogether. The region should take its cues from Washington and Havana, and let them make progress, one step at a time.