Marifeli Perez-Stable

Published in The Miami Herald
January 18, 2007

Free and fair elections have become a habit in Latin America. After 2006’s crowded electoral season, Latinobarómetro recorded the region’s strongest ever support for democracy. So many elections reminded citizens everywhere of their hard-won rights and liberties. Then, too, three years of sustained economic growth have bolstered hopes of social mobility. Freedom and a better life, that’s what it’s all about.

At their recent inaugurations, Hugo Chávez, Daniel Ortega and Rafael Correa sounded different tunes. Unlike most Latin Americans, they dismiss representative democracy and a market economy as the best conduits of progress. Yet, their prescriptions — direct democracy and state-centered economies — failed in the past and will surely fail again.

Democracy and markets, no doubt, have fallen short of expectations, which is why the present is one of rightful anger in many quarters. When institutions falter and growth isn’t shared, citizens tend to listen to the likes of Chávez, Ortega and Correa. It’s that simple. The topic at hand, though, is how each might govern over the near future.
Venezuela: Even before his inauguration, Chávez signaled a radicalization. Nationalizations in the telecommunications and electricity sectors would put the bite into 21st century socialism. Stripping the central bank of its autonomy guts the last restraints on government spending. Chávez is seeking an expanded state presence in the Orinoco oil fields. Since the state already participates in joint ventures with foreign oil companies, might expropriations be on the horizon?

Direct democracy is a code word for unchecked power, and Chávez is a master grabber. All Chavista parties will soon be disbanded in favor of a single ruling party. The president is asking congress for a one-year law to rule by decree. He means to reshape the economy, empower local councils and modify the constitution to permit indefinite reelection.

Venezuelans rank among the strongest supporters of democracy in Latin America. The opposition — which garnered 38 percent in December’s election — should plan intelligent protests to Chávez’s announced radicalization. If he overreaches politically, the so-called ni-nis — neither with the government nor the opposition — might also be moved to action. Chávez may yet prove to have a critical blind spot.
Nicaragua: Ortega’s second act won’t likely be a rerun. Six out of 10 Nicaraguans expect their new president to handle the economy well. Ortega has reaffirmed Nicaragua’s membership in CAFTA-DR and chosen a sensible team to steer the economy. He is joining ALBA — Chávez’s alternative to free-trade agreements with the United States — and is accepting a hefty package of foreign aid from Venezuela. Ortega may well pull off the economic juggling act.

Politics is, again, another matter. Six out of 10 Nicaraguans also expect their institutions to suffer and the pacto between Ortega and Arnoldo Alemán (former president and convicted felon) to strengthen. Early signs confirm their fears. The Sandinistas and Alemán’s liberals elbowed out dissidents in their camps to control the National Assembly. Alemán’s presence at Ortega’s inauguration might indicate that his pardon is coming. Though solid majorities oppose it, Ortega may seek a constitutional amendment to allow presidential reelection.
Ecuador: Will Correa be the first president of Ecuador in 10 years to finish his term? Odds are he won’t, particularly if he bulldozes forward with a constituent assembly that restructures the political system in his own image. Traditional politicians control congress. Yet Correa, who has no legislators, could form a coalition with former President Lucio Gutiérrez and a host of smaller parties. Indigenous organizations support Correa and have warned congress not to balk at the constituent assembly. Still, alliances in Ecuador tend to be fickle.

Like Evo Morales in Bolivia, Correa is following Chávez’s model of subverting the separation of powers via a new constitution. Bolivia’s constituent assembly has, however, been paralyzed for months amid an intensifying polarization that has already cost lives. Morales hasn’t found Chávez’s relatively easy path to unchecked power, and neither will Correa. Summoning inclusive national dialogues is the only way out. But Correa and Morales lack the disposition to compromise.

Ortega, on the other hand, does bargain, if only within the pacto, not in democracy’s give-and-take where outcomes aren’t predetermined. Given his fellow travelers, Ortega could turn out to do the least harm. No small irony here!