Marifeli Perez-Stable

Published in The Miami Herald
February 2, 2006

On July 2, Mexicans will choose a new president. Were the election held today, Andrés Manuel López Obrador would win Los Pinos — the Mexican White House — for the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Felipe Calderón Hinojosa of the National Action Party (PAN), who defeated President Vicente Fox’s candidate in the PAN primaries, would come in a strong second. Roberto Madrazo Pintado of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) would trail in the distance. But five months is plenty of time for upsets or a photo finish.

López Obrador has long led in the polls. As mayor of Mexico City, he made a splash with social programs, construction projects and daily 6:30 a.m. press conferences. Though on occasion he has broken the critical 40 percent ceiling in voter preference, López Obrador has hovered in the mid-30s. He thrives on his connection with ordinary Mexicans and the perception that he delivers.

Whether, if elected, he can meet expectations on a platform that harks of the tried-and-failed policies of protectionism and state intervention is doubtful. Yet his candidacy has tapped the frustrations of many Mexicans who have not seen noticeable improvements in their living standards even as macroeconomic stability was achieved. Should López Obrador win, it’ll be in no small measure, thanks to them.

Calderón, 43, is a fresh, youngish face. He bears the legitimacy of having swept the PAN’s rank-and-file against the leadership’s designs. His unexpected rise propelled the PAN into second place. About 20 percent of his fellow citizens still do not know him while virtually all know his opponents. Thus, Calderón has more room to grow his numbers. He clearly bests López Obrador and Madrazo in technical competence.

Whether he has the political skills to gain the hearts and minds of the dispossessed or to put together the governing coalition he wisely promises if elected is another matter. How much the PAN’s incumbency — fairly or not seen as ineffective — will weigh him down is another question. Calderón could easily persuade younger Mexicans who aspire to be middle class that he is their man. He might not make the inroads expected if he is perceived as closely toeing the PAN’s out-of-the mainstream line on values-related issues.

Madrazo has his hands full. The PRI is still the largest, best organized party in Mexico. While not a few thought it would whither away after losing Los Pinos in 2000, the PRI rose from the ashes and won more elections than the PAN during Fox’s sexennial. Madrazo presided over this resurgence, a testament to his mastery of day-to-day politics in the best and worse PRI traditions. That’s how he built his candidacy.

As his main primary opponent gained momentum, Madrazo railroaded him before voters could register their preference. The feud between Madrazo and Elba Esther Gordillo, the powerful leader of the teachers’ union, broke out in unseemly confrontations and led to the defection of important Príistas, as members of the PRI are called. Madrazo won the nomination but at the expense of reminding Mexicans why they voted against the PRI in 2000. More than 40 percent say that under no circumstance would they ever vote for Madrazo.

Dispirited Príistas are talking about replacing Madrazo as their standard bearer if he doesn’t pick up in the polls by March. Even if changing horses mid-race is unlikely, that it is simply being suggested is another indication of the woes besieging the candidate. If winds don’t start blowing in his favor soon, Madrazo could well face a situation similar to that of the PRD’s Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas in 2000. Some in his own base may start thinking about voting for López Obrador or Calderón instead.

Mexico needs a three-way race. A PRD-PAN contest might prove too socially polarizing. The PRI could temper the polarization. The problem is that on the subject that concerns voters most — the economy — the PRI is both the PAN and the PRD. The latter embodies the nationalism and populism of its more remote past; the former the technocratic administrations of the last three PRI members in Los Pinos.

Madrazo must come up with a substantive vision that is more than splitting the difference if he is to serve Mexico by making the election fully competitive.

THE CANDIDATES

ANDRES MANUEL LOPEZ OBRADOR, Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).

o Age: 52.
o Education: Degree in political science at the National Autonomous University in Mexico City.
o Experience: Son of shopkeepers; director of Tabasco state Indigenous Institute, 1977; breaks with ruling party in 1988, runs unsuccessfully for Tabasco governor; local official and protest leader for the leftist PRD, 1989-1996; loses controversial 1994 Tabasco state governor’s race to current presidential rival Roberto Madrazo; PRD president, 1996-1999; Mexico City mayor, December 2000-July 2005.
o Family: Widower, with three sons.

ROBERTO MADRAZO PINTADO, Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).

o Age: 53.
o Education: Bachelor’s degree in law, National Autonomous University in Mexico City.
o Experience: Headed the youth movement for the PRI; twice served as federal congressman; senator for Tabasco state from 1998 to 1991; governor of Tabasco from 1994 to 2000; lost PRI’s presidential nomination in 1999; party president from 2002 until 2005, when he stepped down to run in the party’s primary.
o Family: Married to Isabel de la Parra Trillo. Five children.

FELIPE CALDERON HINOJOSA, National Action Party (PAN).

o Age: 43.
o Education: Bachelor’s degree in law; master’s degree in economics from Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de Mexico; master’s degree in public administration from Harvard University.
o Experience: Son of one of the founders of the PAN; headed PAN’s youth movement; unsuccessful run for Michoacán governor in 1995; twice served as federal congressman; headed PAN’s executive committee from 1996 until 1999; director of national development bank Banobras in 2000; energy secretary from September 2003 to May 2004; topped two other candidates to win PAN presidential primary in October.
o Family: Wife, PAN Congresswoman Margarita Zavala. Three children.