Marifeli Perez-Stable

By John Dorschner and Pablo Bachelet
Published in the Lexington Herald-Leader
February 24, 2008

Cuba’s foreign policy, for decades dominated by Fidel Castro and his efforts to challenge U.S. interests around the world, will be marked by greater pragmatism no matter who succeeds him, analysts and diplomats say.

Cuba’s diplomatic maneuvering already has increased in recent months as the island reached out to countries like Spain, Canada, Chile and Mexico, in addition to U.S. rivals China and Russia.

Raúl Castro, who has ruled Cuba since his brother took sick in 2006 and is expected to be ratified as the country’s new head of state by the National Assembly this weekend, already has taken a less confrontational, less ideological tone in his international relations, experts and diplomats say.

He’s expected to cool down his brother’s torrid relations with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez as he courts nations that could bring the island additional business benefits and influence with the United States, the experts added. This will become especially important as he attempts to produce tangible improvements for the Cuban people.

“Raúl in the past few months has diversified Cuba’s foreign relations,” says Jaime Suchlicki, head of the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies. “He’s moved closer to Iran, he’s moved closer to the Russians and the Chinese. The Angolan president was in Cuba in December, and now we have this move toward Brazil.”

Last month, as Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was visiting Fidel Castro in Havana, Brazil and Cuba signed 10 agreements, including an aid package of up to $1 billion in credits and more infrastructure investments. According to the Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper, Raœl told Lula he trusted Brazil more as a partner than Venezuela. Brazilian diplomats told journalists earlier this year that Lula was eager to tighten relations with Havana, to expand Brazilian business opportunities and counter Chávez influence in Cuba.

Observers say Cuba under Raúl has been downplaying its traditional role as a world icon of left-wing ideology. “Raúl and Chávez have agreed on a division of labor,” says Damian Fernandez, director of Florida International University’s Cuban Research Institute. Raúl handles internal Cuban affairs while Chávez has become the international face of Latin American leftists, he says. “This relationship of convenience fits both those leaders well.”

Suchlicki says Raúl also wants to avoid becoming too dependent on Chávez. “Raúl is concerned about the reliability of Chávez,” he said, “and he doesn’t want to get caught in the same way they got caught in 1990.” Cuba went into an economic tailspin in 1990 after it lost billions of dollars in Soviet-era subsidies. Venezuela is now estimated to provide a net subsidy of $1 billion annually, mainly through discounted oil.

Cuba is of course expected to continue to seek condemnations of U.S. sanctions on the island, analysts said. But the country is looking beyond that, even reaching out to nations that are ideologically close to Washington. Earlier this month, Cuba agreed to start repaying the $400 million it owes Mexico, paving the way for relations to improve with a country historically close to Cuba but whose relations chilled under conservative Mexican President Vicente Fox.

During a recent visit to Chile, Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage invited President Michelle Bachelet to visit the island, Chilean officials say. Chile embraces the kind of pro-free market policies that Washington espouses and Fidel Castro abhors.

Marifeli Perez Stable, a Florida International University professor and vice president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington, says many foreign leaders might welcome the change in Cuba’s leadership. “Someone who is not bigger than life will be much easier to talk to” than Fidel, she said.